Analyst Dennis Liu suggests that the anticipated ‘altcoin season’ has not yet begun, despite recent rallies in some cryptocurrencies. Liu argues that current market conditions do not reflect the broad outperformance typically associated with a full altcoin season, emphasizing that individual coin gains are isolated events rather than indicative of a widespread trend. The uncertainty surrounding when altcoin season will officially begin persists, as does the question of what constitutes an ‘altcoin season’.
Liu’s core assertion is based on the relative performance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin. He noted that since Bitcoin’s bottom, the average altcoin is only about 10% ahead of BTC. This modest gain, according to Liu, is far removed from the significant outperformance seen in previous altcoin seasons. He pointed to the Total 2-to-Bitcoin ratio, a metric comparing the market value of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin with BTC, describing the chart as “very flat.”
“A handful of strong coins are making the market feel hotter than the data supports,” Liu explained, stressing that these are isolated examples. He highlighted that even major altcoins like XRP have not outperformed Bitcoin, while Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are only marginally ahead. “That’s why I say altcoins are actually still very cheap. And we are not confirming a full-on alt season type of scenario yet. We are just barely getting started,” Liu stated, indicating that the market is “nowhere close” to a full altcoin season.
While the overall trend suggests caution, some individual altcoins have shown remarkable performance. Zcash, for instance, has seen a gain of over 726% in the past year. Quant experienced a significant surge within days, jumping 530% from $59 to $370 before settling near $255. However, Liu reiterated that these are isolated instances.
In contrast, larger altcoins have shown sluggish performance over the past 24 hours. ETH is holding above $2,700, and XRP is trading at $1.50. Other major coins like BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Chainlink have seen slight decreases. Among the notable movers in the last 24 hours, RAIN was one of the biggest losers, dropping over 7%, while FIL gained 8% and ZRO increased by 10%.
Bitcoin itself has been trading sideways, moving between $85,000 and $86,000. On Monday, Bitcoin was rejected at the $87,000 mark, having bounced off $85,000. The cryptocurrency holds a market cap of $1.72 trillion and commands nearly 58% of the total crypto market share.
Liu also advised traders against adhering to historical patterns, such as waiting for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high before investing in altcoins. He noted that while this strategy worked in 2017 and late 2020, it failed in 2024 when Bitcoin broke its previous record while many altcoins continued to lose ground against it. His recommended approach is to trade individual altcoin rallies rather than wait for a broad market signal.
In a separate analysis, Liu identified $83,000 as Bitcoin’s daily pivot. A break below this level could send Bitcoin towards bull market support at $78,000, while holding above $87,000 could signal further upward movement. The uncertainty surrounding the exact timing and definition of an ‘altcoin season’ persists, with current data suggesting that isolated rallies do not yet suggest a broader market trend.
Why This Matters
The materials describe a narrow update: Analyst Dennis Liu argues that altcoin season has not started because the average altcoin’s performance relative to Bitcoin since Bitcoin’s bottom is not indicative of a broad alt season. When will altcoin season officially begin?.
Broader Context
Source materials place the market analysis in this context: Analyst Dennis Liu, who posts on X as VirtualBacon, says altcoin season has not started, because the average altcoin is only about 10% ahead of BTC since the primary cryptocurrency’s bottom.
