Bitcoin’s current bear market may be the shortest and shallowest since 2013, potentially lasting 267 days with a 52% drop if it concluded at the June low, according to reporting by River. This analysis comes as Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 50% from its June low, including over 10% gains in the past week.
However, the definitive end of the bear market remains uncertain. Some market participants, including users on Reddit, suggest that a shallow bear market could signal underlying weakness in the subsequent bull market. They also note that Bitcoin has not yet achieved a positive year-to-date performance, requiring a price above $88,000 by year-end to turn positive.
Supply-Side Dynamics Drive Rebound
River’s analysis indicates that the recent price increase is primarily driven by supply-side factors rather than a surge in demand. Exchange trading volumes are reportedly 30% lower than at the start of the year, and Bitcoin ETFs purchased approximately 18,000 BTC in September. Furthermore, a significant portion of Bitcoin holdings, 81%, has remained unmoved for at least six months. Long-term holders have increased their positions by over 3 million BTC since 2020, and an estimated 4 million BTC dormant for over three years were moved between 2024 and 2025, with about 300,000 BTC still to be moved in the first half of 2026. This scarcity of available supply is seen as a key factor in the current price appreciation.
Demand Lags, Macro Factors Loom
Despite these supply-side indicators, River acknowledges that demand has not yet returned, leaving room for significant price volatility. Adding to the uncertainty, the Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, with indications of at least one more hike. The failure of the CLARITY Act to pass the Senate on September 15th, falling short of the 60-vote threshold, also occurred within this period.
Historical Comparisons and Divergent Views
Discussions among market observers highlight differing interpretations of the current cycle. Some users calculate that the return from one cycle low to the next is only about 3.7 times for this cycle, significantly lower than previous cycles which saw returns of 5, 18, and 83 times. This contrasts with the view that every bear market is the shallowest and that market cycles are not perfectly replicable. Projections suggest a potential peak price for Bitcoin at $124,700 by October 6, 2025, and a low of $58,566 on June 30, 2026, representing a 53% drop from the peak.
Ultimately, while Bitcoin’s recent rebound and supply-side dynamics present a case for a potential end to the bear market, the absence of robust demand and ongoing macroeconomic factors contribute to a landscape of considerable uncertainty. The market’s trajectory will likely depend on the return of demand and the broader economic environment.
Why This Matters
The materials describe a narrow update: Bitcoin’s bear market, if it concluded at the June low, would have lasted 267 days and fallen 52%. Whether the current Bitcoin bear market has truly ended.
Broader Context
Source materials place the factual news in this context: Previous bear market durations and depths are referenced for comparison.
