Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback on Friday, trading around $83,600, a dip of approximately 1% from its previous close, as the week’s rally paused. This decline follows an intraday peak near $87,000, a level not seen in months, after the cryptocurrency broke through the $75,000 to $81,000 range that had constrained it for weeks.
However, chart-watching traders remain unperturbed by this movement. Bitcoin’s daily technical indicators still signal a bullish outlook, with the 50-day moving average positioned above the 200-day, a configuration known as a golden cross.
A portion of Friday’s price softness can be attributed to a mechanical factor. The expiration of $15.6 billion in Bitcoin options on Deribit often prompts dealers to unwind their hedges once this activity concludes. This routine event can cause price fluctuations without necessarily disrupting the underlying trend.
This explanation aligns with a notable decrease in both open interest and 24-hour trading volume, which fell by 14.39% and 13.68%, respectively. Liquidations were also relatively balanced, with $161.96 million in long positions offset by $156.1 million in shorts over the past 24 hours, suggesting a recalibration of leverage rather than a significant one-sided sell-off.
Broader macroeconomic factors continue to play a role. While the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, its first increase since 2023, it simultaneously continued to purchase short-term Treasury bills to maintain ample bank reserves. This dual approach softened the hawkish perception and supported risk assets.
However, this period of relief proved short-lived. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s post-meeting dot plot indicated a median rate projection of just 4.1% through the end of 2027, suggesting only one additional rate hike was likely. Fed Governor Michael Barr’s statement on September 23, noting that “further policy adjustments are likely needed,” coincided with a report revealing core PCE inflation at 3.4%, nearing a four-year high.
Consequently, the probability of an October rate hike has increased, standing at approximately 75% according to the CME’s FedWatch tool and 68.5% on Myriad Markets, a significant shift from the sentiment immediately following the September meeting.
In parallel, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted another $299.09 million on Friday. While this figure is lower than the daily inflows recorded earlier in the week, it indicates a cooling of the initial buying surge rather than an acceleration.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.87 trillion, down from the over $3 trillion mark reached earlier this week. The Fear and Greed Index has receded to 72 from a peak of 79, remaining firmly in “greed” territory but with a less euphoric sentiment.
Most of the top 10 cryptocurrencies have followed Bitcoin’s downward trend over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is trading relatively flat, BNB has declined by 0.81%, and Tron and Hyperliquid are both in negative territory. XRP and Solana have emerged as exceptions.
XRP has seen a notable increase, up 4.37% on the day and 15.45% over the week, trading near $1.58 with a market capitalization of $99 billion. XRP ETFs experienced a nine-day inflow streak totaling $1.6 billion in late August, and these inflows have persisted, suggesting growing institutional interest in the token.
Solana is up 3.36% for the day and 9.33% over seven days, changing hands at around $119.84 with a market capitalization of $70 billion. The network’s Alpenglow upgrade, designed to reduce transaction finality to approximately 150 milliseconds, has already received overwhelming support in a validator governance vote, although its mainnet activation date remains tentative. Meanwhile, spot Solana ETFs from Fidelity, Grayscale, and VanEck, which launched in November 2025, continue to attract inflows as the upgrade narrative gains traction.
The next significant test for Bitcoin is approaching rapidly. September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data is scheduled for release on September 30, followed by the September jobs report on October 2. Both of these economic indicators have the potential to reshape interest rate expectations heading into the fourth quarter.
