Bitcoin Weekly Close Above 50-Week Moving Average for First Time in 45 Weeks
Bitcoin’s weekly close above its 50-week moving average on September 20th, at $81,178, marks the first time the cryptocurrency has achieved this milestone in 45 weeks. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, highlighted this development as a strong historical confirmation that bear market lows have been established. Bitcoin has seen a 29% surge over the past 35 days.
Technical Indicator Signals Potential Bottom
The 50-week moving average, calculated as the average of the past 50 weekly closing prices, is a key indicator used to distinguish between bull and bear market cycles for Bitcoin. According to Binance BTC/USDT data, this average currently stands at $78,820.58. The recent weekly close of $81,178 was approximately 3% above this level. The last time Bitcoin’s weekly close surpassed this average was the week of November 9, 2025, after which it remained below for 44 consecutive weeks. The closest prior attempt was the week of September 6th, when it closed at $80,341.83, just $31 shy of the then-current average.
Recent Price Action Amidst Economic Factors
The 35-day price increase, beginning from the August 16th daily close of $62,900, occurred despite recent economic developments. Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by one quarter-point, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, the first such hike since July 2023. Additionally, a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act in the Senate failed on September 15th. Nevertheless, Bitcoin climbed from $76,842.01 to $81,178 within the past week, a 5.6% gain.
Thorn had previously pointed to the significance of the 50-week moving average on August 28th, stating that Bitcoin’s first return above this level during a bear market has historically signaled a bottom. He expressed hope for a sustained weekly close above the average on Sunday for further confirmation after observing a price breakout on the 18th.
Historical Precedents of Moving Average Crosses
Examining Binance weekly data reveals two prior instances where Bitcoin broke back above the 50-week moving average after extended periods below it. In May 2019, after 40 weeks below the average, Bitcoin remained above it for 29 consecutive weeks, leading to a 54% price increase within a year. In March 2023, following 49 weeks below the average, Bitcoin stayed above for 139 consecutive weeks, resulting in a 144.5% surge in the subsequent year.
However, there are also instances where a return above the average proved temporary. At the end of March 2022, Bitcoin’s weekly close of $46,827.76 briefly pushed it above the average, after only 12 weeks below. It fell back below within two weeks and reached a low of $16,280.23 by November of that year. The current period below the average, lasting 44 weeks, is comparable in duration to the 2019 and 2023 instances.
Leverage and Future Outlook
Current leverage levels do not appear to be overheated. As of the morning of September 21st, the funding rate for Binance BTC perpetual contracts was 0.0086% (settled every 8 hours), which is below the benchmark of 0.01%. Higher funding rates typically indicate crowded long positions. The calculation of the 50-week moving average will also be influenced by the gradual removal of five weekly closes above $100,000 from October to early November of last year. The ability of future weekly closes to remain above the moving average will be crucial in determining the sustainability of this signal, especially given the 2022 example where Bitcoin broke back above the average for only two weeks before falling below again.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average currently?
According to Binance weekly calculations, Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average is approximately $78,820.58. The weekly close on September 20th at $81,178 was about 3% higher, marking the first time above this level in 45 weeks.
Does Bitcoin returning to its 50-week moving average signify the end of a bear market?
Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, views it as a confirmation signal for a bear market bottom. While the 2019 and 2023 instances of returning above the average did not see prices fall to previous lows, the March 2022 re-test was followed by a breakdown within two weeks, with the weekly close in November reaching $16,280.
