Bitcoin’s recent rally has encountered headwinds from a significant shift in the bond market, prompting analysts to reassess the cryptocurrency’s trajectory.
Bond Market Turmoil
In mid-September, Bitcoin faced a challenging environment. The failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate on September 15th, followed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike to 3.75-4.00% the next day, saw Bitcoin briefly dip below $75,000. However, the cryptocurrency rebounded strongly, surpassing $87,000 within a week. This upward momentum stalled as the bond market experienced a dramatic move.
On September 23rd, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged by over 18 basis points, marking the largest single-day increase since April 2025. The following day, yields climbed above 5.2%, reaching levels not seen since 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield approached 5.50%, a high not observed since 2004. This sharp rise in yields was attributed to a confluence of factors, including robust Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, a weak five-year Treasury auction, and rising oil prices. Notably, even the Treasury’s $4 billion buyback of long bonds on September 24th failed to curb the upward trend in yields.
Rate Hikes and ETF Flows
The Federal Reserve’s rate hike, while significant, had a muted impact on Bitcoin’s immediate price action. The market had largely anticipated the move, with futures markets pricing in a hike of nearly 90% by the eve of the meeting. Some of Bitcoin’s preceding weakness was likely a reflection of this repricing.
Evidence of this can be seen in the flows of spot Bitcoin ETFs. After experiencing outflows of approximately $750 million on September 15th and 16th, these ETFs saw inflows totaling $2.39 billion in the week ending September 25th, marking their strongest week since October 2025, according to Farside Investors.
The Bond Selloff’s Impact
The daily breakdown of ETF flows reveals a more nuanced picture: $999 million on Monday, followed by $715 million, $347 million, $191 million, and $135 million by Friday. While buying persisted, it diminished as yields climbed. Unlike a rate hike, which has a predetermined size, a bond selloff’s extent is dictated by market forces. Yields exceeding 5% present a direct challenge to assets like Bitcoin, which offer no yield.
An alternative interpretation suggests that if the U.S. Treasury is compelled to borrow at higher rates, the national deficit and the supply of bonds will increase. Many in the cryptocurrency community view this as a long-term bullish case for Bitcoin. However, the immediate impact is evident in the current market flows, with Bitcoin holding its recent gains but struggling to extend them.
Chart Analysis
On a 3-day chart, Bitcoin broke above the $70,000 region around August 20th. After consolidating near $80,000 for several weeks, it experienced another breakout last week, reaching above $87,000 before a pullback. This second breakout is significant, potentially marking the first higher high on higher timeframes since the bear market began.
The moving averages on the 3-day chart further support this constructive outlook. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed above the 50-day EMA for the first time since their bearish crossover in November 2025, which coincided with the start of the bear market. Bitcoin is currently retracing its latest upward move. The next significant support level is identified at $80,000, with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move from $75,000 to $87,000 falling just above it, around $81,000. As long as Bitcoin maintains the $80,000 area, the overall market structure can be considered constructive. A sustained move below this level would cast doubt on the higher high formation.
Navigating Bitcoin’s Next Move with PrimeXBT
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The same macroeconomic forces influencing Bitcoin are also impacting Gold, U.S. Dollar pairs, and major equity indices. PrimeXBT provides access to these markets, offering over 350 instruments with accounts denominated in USD, USDT, USDC, BTC, and ETH, enabling traders to act on a broader macroeconomic view across both crypto and traditional markets.
The PXTrader 2.0 platform, powered by TradingView, offers charting capabilities to monitor the $80,000 support area and moving-average signals. Advanced order and risk-management tools are available to help traders manage their positions as the market outlook evolves. Crypto Futures execution combines a real order book and deep liquidity with volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP). With Bitcoin holding its breakout but struggling to advance, the focus shifts from identifying the rally to actively managing trades as new market signals emerge.
