Glassnode: 4M Bitcoin Above $85K May Limit Rally

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Face Significant Paper Losses as Price Stalls

A substantial portion of Bitcoin’s long-term holders are currently sitting on unrealized losses, with approximately 4 million BTC acquired at prices ranging from $85,000 to $118,000. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode suggests that many of these investors may look to sell if the cryptocurrency’s price approaches these levels again.

Glassnode, which defines long-term holders as those who have held their coins for over 155 days, noted that the majority of this particular cohort purchased their Bitcoin in 2025. According to a note published on Wednesday, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, more than half of all coins held by long-term holders were bought at prices exceeding the current market value.

Key Resistance Level Proves Stubborn

Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a foothold above the $85,000 mark. Since the beginning of the year, the cryptocurrency has only managed to close above this level on five separate days, never for more than three consecutive days, highlighting its significance as a formidable resistance.

At Bitcoin’s current price of approximately $81,400, the block of 4 million BTC represents a value of about $326 billion. While Bitcoin has seen a 1.2% increase over the past 24 hours, it remains roughly 35% below its all-time high of $126,080. Glassnode further observed that a price band between $84,000 and $85,000 has repelled Bitcoin’s advance four times this year. The last time Bitcoin breached this level was in September, reaching a peak of $87,100.

ETF Holders Near Break-Even Point

Holders of U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are also close to breaking even. Glassnode estimates the average purchase price for these ETFs to be around $81,500. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, corroborated this in a tweet on Wednesday, estimating the figure to be just under $82,000 and noting that Bitcoin has traded in this vicinity since late August.

Seyffart’s analysis indicated that as of Monday, ETF holders had an average unrealized loss of approximately $2.63 billion. He clarified in replies that this estimate solely accounts for fund flows and not the prices paid by secondary market buyers.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates, Market Eyes December

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, with a 10-2 vote. Governors Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, advocating for a rate hike. Prior to the decision, traders had assigned a greater than 70% probability to another quarter-point increase in December.

Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, suggested that a December rate hike had already been largely priced into the market. He told Decrypt that the primary constraint on Bitcoin’s performance is the “persistently high U.S. Treasury yields and real interest rates, which are significantly raising the opportunity cost for investors holding risk assets.”

The 10-year Treasury yield stood just below 5% on Thursday afternoon, according to CNBC, a slight decrease from its close of 5.05% on Wednesday and down from a 52-week high of 5.37% reached on October 7.

Funding Rates and ETF Flows Show Mixed Signals

Sun also pointed to lower funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures, which have compressed returns for cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies that involve simultaneously buying spot Bitcoin and selling futures. Galaxy Research reported that nine hedge funds and banks reduced their spot ETF exposure by 68,000 BTC as this trading strategy became less attractive, while wealth platforms and sovereign funds increased their holdings.

ETF flows have shown an uptick this week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $424 million in inflows from Monday to Wednesday, according to SoSoValue data, following an outflow of $635 million on October 22.

Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amidst Selling Pressure

“Any rally above $85,000 could face selling pressure from long-term holders seeking to break even,” Sun stated, echoing Glassnode’s sentiment.

However, both firms noted that the selling volume has been relatively light. Glassnode observed that realized losses have diminished with each price dip since August. At the August low, daily realized losses exceeded profits by approximately $630 million, whereas around the dip on October 24, the largest daily net loss was about $27 million.

“The core issue facing the market right now is not panic selling, but rather insufficient new buying interest to support a sustained recovery,” Sun commented.

On the downside, Glassnode identified approximately $42 million in buy orders between $78,000 and $79,000 on Binance, and the average cost basis for newer buyers at $75,800.

Sun anticipates Bitcoin will continue to trade within the $75,000 to $85,000 range in the short term, awaiting improvements in macroeconomic liquidity and a resumption of consistent net inflows into ETFs. He concluded that the market’s ability to absorb selling pressure near $85,000 “will serve as an important signal to determine whether the market can regain strength.”