Polymarket US Launches Ultra-Short Crypto Prediction Contracts
Polymarket US has rolled out 5-minute binary options prediction contracts for major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, marking a significant expansion of its offerings in the American market.
The move follows Polymarket’s successful re-entry into the US, facilitated by its acquisition of CFTC-regulated entity QCX LLC. This strategic acquisition allowed the prediction market platform to re-establish its presence after a previous exit due to regulatory issues.
The newly launched contracts operate on the Polymarket US App as binary options, where users predict whether a cryptocurrency’s price will be higher or lower within a 5-minute window. Successful predictions yield a payout of $1 per contract.
To ensure market integrity and prevent manipulation, contract settlements are based on Chainlink’s 60-second Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP). This mechanism averages the asset’s price over the final minute, mitigating the impact of last-second price fluctuations. In cases of a tie, where the predicted price matches the initial price, the contract automatically resolves in favor of the “up” position.
Polymarket initially launched in the US in 2020 but was compelled to cease operations and pay a $1.4 million fine for offering unregistered derivatives. The platform’s return to the US market was secured in July 2025 through a $112 million deal to acquire QCX LLC, which possessed a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) license. This acquisition enabled Polymarket to transition from its previous reliance on unregulated Web3 digital wallets.
This latest offering of 5-minute contracts follows the recent introduction of 15-minute, hourly, and daily contracts earlier this month.
While Polymarket has established a strong presence in the global events prediction market, Kalshi currently leads in US consumer volume. Kalshi’s advantage stems from its legal launch in 2020, giving it a five-year head start. The platform has also focused on attracting institutional liquidity through partnerships with major financial firms like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Webull, and offers contracts covering a broad spectrum of events, from economic indicators to sports and weather.
In contrast, Polymarket’s contracts primarily focus on cryptocurrency and pop-culture events. Its US operations are currently in a beta phase, accessible to users on an invite-only basis.
Despite federal regulation under the CFTC for both platforms, state-level opposition persists. Nevada and Minnesota have imposed complete bans on all prediction market platforms, while Washington and Michigan have prohibited sports-related contract trading. New York, Texas, and California are actively engaged in legal challenges against prediction market operations.
