Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research and author of “Crypto Titans,” has outlined his outlook for Bitcoin, predicting a year-end price target of $90,000. However, he also expressed skepticism regarding the true demand from institutional investors for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and argued that Ethereum needs to offer more tangible benefits to its holders.
Bitcoin’s Shifting Market Dynamics
Thielen believes that Bitcoin’s era of consistent double-digit price surges has concluded, attributing this shift to the influence of Wall Street traders and profit-taking by large holders, often referred to as “whales.” He explained in a recent episode of Cointelegraph’s “Trade Secrets” that institutional traders selling call options following price rallies have curbed the dramatic price swings seen in earlier years.
His research into past crypto cycles, documented in his book, revealed a pattern of evolving promoters attracting different investor demographics. “Every cycle had actually different promoters, and different promoters bring in different investors,” Thielen stated. This cycle, he noted, sees Wall Street players, who typically base trading decisions on economic data and Federal Reserve policy, taking a more prominent role. Consequently, Thielen anticipates Bitcoin will experience rapid gains on news events, followed by periods of sideways trading (“crab walking”) until the next significant macroeconomic development.
Questioning ETF Demand
A key point of Thielen’s analysis centers on the net spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which he estimates to be around $60 billion. He suggests that market makers may account for as much as half of this figure. These firms, he explained, acquire ETF shares primarily to hedge their options trades, rather than as a direct bet on Bitcoin’s price appreciation. “So in the end it was not outright buying,” Thielen asserted, basing his assessment on a review of Form 13F filings, which detail the securities holdings of investment managers.
The initial influx of capital into these ETFs also included retail investors purchasing through institutional and corporate channels, some of whom paid significant premiums over the value of the underlying crypto assets. Despite these observations, Thielen remains open to the possibility of future institutional investment, including from sovereign wealth funds.
Price Projections and Fed Influence
Thielen maintains his forecast for Bitcoin to reach $90,000 by the end of the year, though he anticipates a potential interim dip into the mid-to-high $70,000 range. Bitcoin has recently traded within this band, experiencing a decline to approximately $76,100 on Friday, following news of a $6.3 billion hack at Binance. Data from Coinglass indicated that BTC closed October down 7.3%.
He drew a parallel between the recent price recovery and early 2023, when Bitcoin climbed from around $20,000 to $30,000. Thielen observed that the current skepticism surrounding the rebound mirrors past cycles, as investors search for opportune entry points after anticipated price drops.
The potential for Bitcoin to return to $90,000 is also linked to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in September, setting a target range of 3.75%–4%. Last Wednesday, the Fed opted to hold rates steady in a divided vote, with two officials advocating for another increase. The Fed’s statement highlighted persistent elevated inflation, leaving the door open for further rate hikes. Thielen expects another hike by December, followed by a more measured approach to subsequent increases, which could support a Bitcoin rally towards year-end.
Ethereum’s Holder Value Proposition
Thielen expressed a bearish stance on Ether, predicting that Bitcoin will outperform it. He argued that a significant portion of the value generated by Ethereum activity is being channeled to layer-2 networks. While making these networks more affordable to use has been a deliberate aspect of Ethereum’s development, Thielen suggested that lower transaction fees could dilute the investment appeal of ETH.
Ethereum’s mechanism involves burning base fees paid by users, thereby reducing the circulating supply. The supply shrinks when the amount burned exceeds the new ETH issued to validators. Conversely, lower fees can result in less ETH being destroyed, potentially leading to supply growth if issuance outpaces burning.
Comparing Ethereum to a highway, Thielen stated, “Everybody wants the highway to be empty so you can go fast, and the roads need to be super, super clean and fixed and everything, but nobody wants to pay for it.” He cited Hyperliquid as an example of a decentralized perpetuals exchange where trading fees are converted into its native token, HYPE, and subsequently burned, creating a direct link between trading activity and token value. For Ethereum, Thielen emphasized the need for a stronger connection between network usage and tangible financial benefits for ETH holders.
