Bitcoin is currently consolidating around the $78,000 mark, testing a critical demand zone that could influence the trajectory of its recent rally structure. This price action occurs against a backdrop of four consecutive weekly losses and follows significant market events, including a substantial hack and notable withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. On-chain data, specifically the velocity metric, indicates an increase in coin circulation, a development that warrants careful analysis.
Bitcoin’s price has been under pressure, recently falling below the midline of its ascending channel, which was previously around $82,000. It is now trading within an order block spanning $75,000 to $78,000. This zone represents the base of the September rally, and buyers have shown some response here, though the subsequent recovery has been limited. The market is observing whether this demand zone can hold, as a daily close below $75,000 could expose the channel’s lower boundary near $73,000, potentially leading to a more significant correction. A notable move through this confluence would invalidate the price structure that has supported Bitcoin since mid-year.
Analysis suggests that sellers are currently controlling short-term momentum. Until Bitcoin reclaims its broken ascending channel, rebounds are likely to encounter overhead supply. The price was previously rejected from a supply zone between $86,000 and $90,000 in late September. Following a break below the channel’s lower boundary around October 23, subsequent attempts to rally stalled within the $80,000 to $82,000 supply zone. Buyers eventually stepped in at the $76,000 demand level, leading to a recovery toward $79,000 before easing back to the current $78,000 area.
On-chain metrics provide additional context. The velocity metric, which measures how frequently coins are circulating, has risen to approximately 14.6. This increase is notable when compared to its level of around 12.1 in October 2025. For comparison, in early 2024, Bitcoin’s velocity was roughly 15.8. Historically, a period of falling velocity, from 15.8 in early 2024 down to 12.1 in October 2025, coincided with Bitcoin rallying to its all-time high near $125,000 in 2025. This pattern suggested that a growing share of supply was being held off the market, contributing to scarcity dynamics. The current rise in velocity, however, is occurring as the price declines. According to analysis, this divergence could suggest that previously idle coins are re-entering circulation, a pattern more consistent with redistribution than accumulation. This dynamic may weaken the supply-squeeze narrative that supported the earlier rally.
It is important to note that velocity alone cannot definitively reveal who is buying or selling. However, the current trend of rising velocity alongside price weakness raises questions about the sustainability of the market structure. If Bitcoin fails to hold the $75,000 to $78,000 demand zone, further selling pressure could materialize. Conversely, reclaiming the $80,000 to $82,000 supply zone could open the path toward $85,000. The market remains uncertain about the immediate direction, with key support levels at $75,000 and $73,000 being closely watched.
Recent events, such as a record hack on Binance and approximately $643.3 million in withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Friday, have contributed to the prevailing market sentiment. While these events add to the pressure, the primary focus remains on Bitcoin’s ability to defend its current support levels and the implications of the increasing on-chain velocity.
Why This Matters
The materials describe a narrow update: Bitcoin is trading around $78K after experiencing its fourth consecutive weekly loss. Whether the September rally structure will survive.
Broader Context
Source materials place the market analysis in this context: The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is the September Rally Structure in Danger as BTC Hangs by a Thread? appeared first on CryptoPotato.
